A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
